Analysts: Second Unemployment Spike Expected in Autumn

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Notice board at a job centre (stock photo by TASR)

Bratislava, July 20 (TASR) – The rise in registered unemployment rate in Slovakia slowed down in June, but could pick up its pace throughout the summer or in the autumn, when people terminated from larger companies are likely to wind up in the job centre statistics, think analysts.

The June stats posed a pleasant surprise to the analysts. “Our expectations of the job centres registering a significant influx of the unemployed, who lost their jobs early in the outbreak and their severance period just expired didn’t come true,” stated UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia analyst Lubomir Korsnak.

With the receding outbreak, unemployment figures could see an improvement also by virtue of the reviving labour market, which, unlike in the preceding two months, has become more able to absorb a portion of the unemployed.

“It was mostly people in industry, services and retail who lost their jobs,” added Slovenska Sporitelna analyst Katarina Muchova. She pointed out that almost 20 percent of the unemployed in June were secondary school and university graduates.

The analysts expect the unemployment to grow in the following months, albeit only slightly. The first wave is estimated to appear in September after graduates join the labour market and the second spike might occur later in the autumn, when some larger companies, which have yet managed to postpone lay-offs by using their savings, trim down their staffs.

The unemployment could thus stand at 9-10 percent at the turn of the year, but is likely to start declining afterwards in the wake of the economy heating up.